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hello and welcome i'm john yebrick with

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nasa public affairs

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stories and predictions of the

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underworld in december 2012 have been

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betrayed in film stadium books and

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blossomed on the internet

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a panel of scientists are here with us

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today to discuss

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the 2012 2012 rumors propagated across

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the spectrum

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we're going to ask some common questions

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and take some from social media

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if you have a question use the hashtag

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poundastnasa on twitter or on the live

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streaming page for the event on nasa

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television's youtube channel or the

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stream on nasa's google plus page

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let's start with having our panel

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my name is mitzi adams i'm a

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heliophysicist for marshall's space

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flight center

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in huntsville alabama

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and i have a special interest in sunspot

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magnetic fields flare prediction and

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coronal bright points

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i frequently serve as a gas lecturer for

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the von braun astronomical society and

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for science courses at the university of

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alabama in huntsville where i've led

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several sessions of theories of the

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universe a class that explores how

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various cultures perceive the cosmos

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including my favorites the maya and inca

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civilizations of central and south

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america

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i enjoy exploring strange new worlds and

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have hiked run and been cave diving in

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the yucatan of mexico and explored maya

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so i'm andrew frack noy

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and i'm an astronomer and the chair of

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the astronomy department at foothill

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college

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near san francisco

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i have students

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every year who are tremendously worried

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about such issues so i'm delighted that

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we're going to be doing this round table

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my specialty

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is dealing with astronomical

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pseudoscience or fiction science things

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that are on the fringe of scientific

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ideas but are not really valid in

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examining them and helping the public to

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understand them i'm also the only

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non-nasa person on the panel i'm the

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outside commentator so that you can't

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imagine that this is some kind of

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hi i'm lika goha takurta i'm at nasa

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headquarters in the heliophysics

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division

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my profession is as a heliophysicist and

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i manage a program called living with a

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star and that star is our sun

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and the goal of this program is really

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to understand the sun and the earth as a

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connected system and sun's influence not

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only on our planet earth but every other

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planet the interplanetary medium

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this area of heliophysics has given rise

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to what we know as space weather

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geophysics is the science of space

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weather and i know that space weather is

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an ill-understood

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subject today because it's still in its

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infancy

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and so i hope in today's discussion

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we'll be able to discuss some of the

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ideas behind space weather and some of

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the ideas of solar storms that are

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floating around that are not correct

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my name is paul hertz i'm the director

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of astrophysics at nasa headquarters in

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washington dc

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my training is as an astronomer i've

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used telescopes all over the world as

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well as many telescopes orbiting in

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space to study interesting phenomena

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throughout the universe my specialty has

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been studying black holes and neutron

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stars and other objects which which emit

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large numbers of x-rays but i'm

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interested in just about anything that

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takes place uh beyond our planet

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i'm david morrison i'm a space scientist

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at nasa's ames research center uh began

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career as an astronomer and planetary

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scientist and then became one of the

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founders of the interdisciplinary study

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of astrobiology the study of life in the

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universe currently i also have a joint

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appointment as director of the carl

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sagan center for the study of life in

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the universe at the seti institute

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for almost a decade i have been

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answering the questions that the public

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send in about science to nasa's ask an

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astrobiology webpage and that's a lot of

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fun but in the last few years the real

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science questions have been overwhelmed

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by questions about a 2012 doomsday so

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hi i'm don yeomans i'm manager of nasa's

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near near-earth object program office at

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the jet propulsion laboratory in

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pasadena california

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and i'm supervisor of the solar system

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dynamics group here at jpl and it's our

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job

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to keep track of the planets

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their past positions and their future

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positions to keep track of the natural

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satellites and also the hundreds of

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thousands of asteroids and comets

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that can from time to time get close to

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earth and if we do find one or two that

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do get close it's our job to compute

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impact probabilities

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and if there's a problem uh we notify

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observers

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to provide additional data in hopes that

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these impact probabilities will go to

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zero which they almost always do

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thank you let's start with a question

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from google plus cal singh man asks why

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is nasa even wasting their time doing a

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hangout on google plus if we have

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well that's an interesting question many

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of us have asked the same question to

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ourselves because there is no true issue

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here this is just a a manufactured

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fantasy but the fact is that many people

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are worried about it and many of those

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people do write to nasa and ask for nasa

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to to respond

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in particular i'm concerned about the

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young people who write to me and say

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they are terribly afraid that they can't

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sleep they can't eat

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some of them have said they're

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contemplating suicide

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there was one case of a teacher in in

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stockton who had the parents of two of

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her students come and say they were

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planning to kill their children

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themselves to escape this apocalypse so

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while it's a joke to many people and a

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mystery to others there is a core of

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people who are truly concerned and i

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think it's appropriate that nasa should

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answer these questions that are being

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thanks what is the origin of the

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prediction that the rural land in 2012

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andy are you going to answer that i i am

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my microphone was muted excuse me so uh

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can everyone hear me now

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yeah good so i think this is important

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to remember that this is not the first

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time we've heard predictions of doomsday

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in apocalypse

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uh those who were around the year 2000

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remember that there was a lot of

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calendar scare there too just like we're

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hearing now that the mayan calendar is

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going to reset in those days we thought

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the world was going to end because our

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computer calendars were going to reset

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and i have a little chart which maybe we

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can put up that shows some of the uh

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very uh

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recent predictions of doomsday there

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have been predictions like this

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throughout history but uh in 1982 for

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example there was a thought that the

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planets would align and a great

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earthquake would send california into

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the ocean and much to the chagrin of

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some california still around

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in uh 1999 charles berlitz predicted

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that there would be an end of the world

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and wrote a best-selling book about it

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um so we've had a number of these uh and

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in each case nothing much has happened

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and here we come again i think there

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have been a lot of different people who

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have jumped on board

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once the 2012 rumors started going and

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brought their own particular flavor of

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catastrophe to bear on this particular

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date of the winter solstice of 2012.

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andy i would would add to that only that

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that there are these different threads

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as you said there's neither

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creation to earth there's whole shifts

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there's all sorts of other things and

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they're really quite unconnected it's

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just that they focus on this one date

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and it's become a a snowballing process

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it's gone viral there's nothing

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logical of why these different

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calamities should be associated with

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december 21st but that's the situation

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we're in

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and david tell the story about the movie

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2012 and how they made the website

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because i think that's a great story

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well it was interesting i expect many of

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you have seen the movie 2012 it was a

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spectacular disaster flick

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the

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not know

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about 2012 when they started it had a

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different title it was just going to be

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an end of the world disaster click and

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at one point when they were starting

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production someone walked in and say i

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just was on the internet and heard that

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there are people really scared

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about 2012 so let's

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tack our movie onto that and give that

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title uh it the movie wasn't about 2012

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but it is contributed to this this broad

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concern that is propagated primarily on

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the internet there are thousands of

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websites there are thousands of youtube

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videos that are all saying that there

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will be some disaster happening in three

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weeks

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it's uh interesting to point out that uh

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on the internet uh there are no referees

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there are no filters there are no

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reality checks so it's a wild west out

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there and folks who

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hear about extraordinary claims have to

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look for the extraordinary evidence

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that's required to support those claims

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and and sadly it's not just the web

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that's like this now more and more sort

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of cable television channels are taking

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a tabloid approach where anything goes

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so it's especially important for

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scientists to speak up and say look even

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if you've heard it on the history

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channel it doesn't mean it has to be

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true

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we have another question from google

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plus it's robin venerman is asking was

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wondering how the mayans picked a date

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to start their calendar why exactly or

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most likely on that day thousands of

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well the maya i believe in cycles

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and the current calendar is actually one

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of several cycles that lasts for

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thousands of years the current calendar

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probably began in

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somewhere around 3114

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before the current era

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and

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of the cycles have been passed down

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through

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some of the mythology of the maya

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and

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this current one

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simply ends on um december 21st or 23rd

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depending on who's doing the translation

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of this year

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the um

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the reason there is no other maya

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calendar is because the spanish arrived

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and the maya civilization was um

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essentially destroyed um they would have

280
00:11:40,790 --> 00:11:37,680
done essentially the same thing that we

281
00:11:48,310 --> 00:11:40,800
do and and just create a new calendar

282
00:11:54,949 --> 00:11:49,910
okay thank you i have another question

283
00:11:58,150 --> 00:11:56,790
it's a baby gva

284
00:12:01,430 --> 00:11:58,160
asks can you also talk about the

285
00:12:06,470 --> 00:12:04,710
sure i'll talk about that um so uh as

286
00:12:07,670 --> 00:12:06,480
you know as the earth goes around the

287
00:12:09,829 --> 00:12:07,680
sun

288
00:12:12,870 --> 00:12:09,839
and then different stars are up in the

289
00:12:14,790 --> 00:12:12,880
night sky uh every night uh we get up we

290
00:12:17,509 --> 00:12:14,800
get a sweep through the whole sky

291
00:12:19,430 --> 00:12:17,519
um and once a year the uh direction to

292
00:12:23,430 --> 00:12:19,440
the center of the milky way galaxy will

293
00:12:25,990 --> 00:12:23,440
be right overhead um and uh or right

294
00:12:29,030 --> 00:12:26,000
behind the sun and in fact uh in late

295
00:12:31,829 --> 00:12:29,040
december is the time that every year the

296
00:12:34,310 --> 00:12:31,839
center of the milky way galaxy is behind

297
00:12:37,350 --> 00:12:34,320
the sun and so the earth and the sun and

298
00:12:40,310 --> 00:12:37,360
the sun and the milky way galaxy kinda

299
00:12:43,190 --> 00:12:40,320
of line up in late december every year

300
00:12:46,389 --> 00:12:43,200
it's not december 21st and it's not an

301
00:12:49,590 --> 00:12:46,399
exact alignment the uh the sun will be

302
00:12:52,389 --> 00:12:49,600
about 10 of its own widths away from the

303
00:12:54,069 --> 00:12:52,399
exact direction to the galactic center

304
00:12:56,150 --> 00:12:54,079
when they get as close as they're going

305
00:12:58,790 --> 00:12:56,160
to get this year and this year is no

306
00:13:01,190 --> 00:12:58,800
different than any other year

307
00:13:03,430 --> 00:13:01,200
and i guess it's important to point out

308
00:13:06,069 --> 00:13:03,440
to those of our listeners who are not

309
00:13:08,870 --> 00:13:06,079
astronomy buffs that the distance

310
00:13:13,030 --> 00:13:08,880
between us and the center of the galaxy

311
00:13:16,230 --> 00:13:13,040
is absolutely mind-boggling so that it's

312
00:13:19,990 --> 00:13:16,240
something like 26 000 light years where

313
00:13:21,750 --> 00:13:20,000
each light year is 6 000 billion miles

314
00:13:23,990 --> 00:13:21,760
so the notion that something at the

315
00:13:26,310 --> 00:13:24,000
center of the galaxy could cause

316
00:13:28,389 --> 00:13:26,320
doomsday on earth is a complete

317
00:13:31,590 --> 00:13:28,399
misunderstanding of how truly

318
00:13:34,629 --> 00:13:31,600
astronomical the distances are between

319
00:13:38,389 --> 00:13:34,639
us and the center of the milky way and

320
00:13:39,829 --> 00:13:38,399
andy as an example um uh even though the

321
00:13:42,790 --> 00:13:39,839
uh black hole at the center of the

322
00:13:45,590 --> 00:13:42,800
galaxy weighs a million times as much as

323
00:13:48,389 --> 00:13:45,600
the sun it's so far away that its

324
00:13:50,310 --> 00:13:48,399
gravity is less than one millionth

325
00:13:52,150 --> 00:13:50,320
the gravity that the sun the ground on

326
00:13:53,509 --> 00:13:52,160
the earth the gravity effect of this

327
00:13:55,509 --> 00:13:53,519
black hole this here in the galaxy is

328
00:13:58,629 --> 00:13:55,519
less than one millionth the gravity

329
00:14:00,710 --> 00:13:58,639
effect that the sun has on the earth

330
00:14:03,110 --> 00:14:00,720
there's a strange variant on this that

331
00:14:04,949 --> 00:14:03,120
uh that said that um

332
00:14:07,269 --> 00:14:04,959
go ahead go ahead don well i was just

333
00:14:09,269 --> 00:14:07,279
going to point out uh reinforce what

334
00:14:09,990 --> 00:14:09,279
pulse said that

335
00:14:13,110 --> 00:14:10,000
the

336
00:14:15,189 --> 00:14:13,120
so-called galactic alignment takes place

337
00:14:17,750 --> 00:14:15,199
every year without consequence and has

338
00:14:21,750 --> 00:14:17,760
done so for millions of years so

339
00:14:24,470 --> 00:14:22,790
go ahead

340
00:14:26,150 --> 00:14:24,480
i'm just going to say it's it's a it's a

341
00:14:27,829 --> 00:14:26,160
silly variant but i've heard it many

342
00:14:29,750 --> 00:14:27,839
times there are some people who

343
00:14:31,990 --> 00:14:29,760
interpret this as saying the earth is

344
00:14:34,069 --> 00:14:32,000
going to be in the center of the galaxy

345
00:14:36,069 --> 00:14:34,079
that somehow it's going to travel 30 000

346
00:14:37,350 --> 00:14:36,079
light years and collide with that black

347
00:14:38,949 --> 00:14:37,360
hole

348
00:14:40,870 --> 00:14:38,959
goodness knows where these things get

349
00:14:43,110 --> 00:14:40,880
going but they are propagated on the

350
00:14:46,389 --> 00:14:43,120
internet and as has been pointed out

351
00:14:48,710 --> 00:14:46,399
there's nobody there to uh to moderate

352
00:14:49,509 --> 00:14:48,720
to say what's right and what's wrong

353
00:14:51,350 --> 00:14:49,519
it's

354
00:14:53,670 --> 00:14:51,360
been described that the internet is the

355
00:14:56,230 --> 00:14:53,680
world's greatest library without the

356
00:14:58,470 --> 00:14:56,240
benefit of librarians

357
00:15:00,389 --> 00:14:58,480
could plan is it possible is it could

358
00:15:01,990 --> 00:15:00,399
planets align in a way

359
00:15:04,230 --> 00:15:02,000
that could have some sort of impact on

360
00:15:07,430 --> 00:15:04,240
earth is that even feasible

361
00:15:09,750 --> 00:15:07,440
well planets align all the time uh

362
00:15:11,269 --> 00:15:09,760
but the only objects that have a

363
00:15:13,269 --> 00:15:11,279
noticeable effect on the earth tidal

364
00:15:14,949 --> 00:15:13,279
effects are the moon which is very close

365
00:15:17,030 --> 00:15:14,959
and massive and the sun which is

366
00:15:19,990 --> 00:15:17,040
extraordinarily massive

367
00:15:22,389 --> 00:15:20,000
even if the sun earth and jupiter were

368
00:15:24,470 --> 00:15:22,399
aligned and they do align from time to

369
00:15:27,030 --> 00:15:24,480
time the effect of jupiter on the earth

370
00:15:29,910 --> 00:15:27,040
is much less than one percent of the

371
00:15:31,110 --> 00:15:29,920
daily effect that our moon has on us so

372
00:15:33,990 --> 00:15:31,120
alignments

373
00:15:35,910 --> 00:15:34,000
occur uh they're interesting uh from a

374
00:15:38,470 --> 00:15:35,920
pictorial point of view but uh they

375
00:15:40,870 --> 00:15:38,480
really have no bearing uh an effect upon

376
00:15:42,629 --> 00:15:40,880
the earth

377
00:15:45,350 --> 00:15:42,639
okay thank god

378
00:15:47,590 --> 00:15:45,360
isn't it also true that uh that in this

379
00:15:48,870 --> 00:15:47,600
case when you look at where the planets

380
00:15:51,509 --> 00:15:48,880
are in the sky they're pretty much

381
00:15:53,269 --> 00:15:51,519
scattered all over on december 21st it's

382
00:15:55,110 --> 00:15:53,279
about as far from an alignment of

383
00:15:57,350 --> 00:15:55,120
planets as you could get

384
00:16:01,509 --> 00:15:57,360
that's true but even if even if they

385
00:16:04,150 --> 00:16:03,269
here's a question that we get asked a

386
00:16:06,310 --> 00:16:04,160
lot

387
00:16:08,629 --> 00:16:06,320
just on social media and comments

388
00:16:10,389 --> 00:16:08,639
sections on the web uh is nasa uh

389
00:16:14,790 --> 00:16:10,399
predicting a total blackout of earth on

390
00:16:17,670 --> 00:16:16,550
what

391
00:16:21,269 --> 00:16:17,680
i don't know where it came from but

392
00:16:27,269 --> 00:16:25,110
it's it's very uh complicated where some

393
00:16:31,269 --> 00:16:27,279
of these rumors emerge apparently there

394
00:16:34,310 --> 00:16:31,279
is a a uh note some kind of email going

395
00:16:36,949 --> 00:16:34,320
around uh sometimes some religious uh

396
00:16:38,949 --> 00:16:36,959
traditions get confused with the ideas

397
00:16:41,670 --> 00:16:38,959
that the winter solstice is the shortest

398
00:16:45,350 --> 00:16:41,680
day of the year so uh it's it's

399
00:16:47,749 --> 00:16:45,360
completely without scientific basis

400
00:16:49,509 --> 00:16:47,759
again folks have to uh understand that

401
00:16:52,389 --> 00:16:49,519
if they see something on the internet

402
00:16:54,389 --> 00:16:52,399
and it's an extraordinary claim as carl

403
00:16:56,310 --> 00:16:54,399
sagan pointed out time and time again

404
00:16:58,870 --> 00:16:56,320
you need extraordinary evidence to back

405
00:17:00,790 --> 00:16:58,880
it up and there is no evidence for this

406
00:17:03,670 --> 00:17:00,800
this three-day blackout or any of these

407
00:17:05,829 --> 00:17:03,680
other phenomena that we're discussing

408
00:17:08,309 --> 00:17:05,839
this is not the first time that the the

409
00:17:11,669 --> 00:17:08,319
blackout came along by the way there was

410
00:17:14,069 --> 00:17:11,679
a similar kind of interest and concern

411
00:17:17,350 --> 00:17:14,079
about comet elenin the little comet that

412
00:17:19,510 --> 00:17:17,360
came along in in 2011 and disintegrated

413
00:17:21,590 --> 00:17:19,520
and there were firm predictions on the

414
00:17:23,510 --> 00:17:21,600
web then that that comet was going to

415
00:17:25,750 --> 00:17:23,520
come between the earth and the sun and

416
00:17:27,750 --> 00:17:25,760
cause a three-day blackout at the end of

417
00:17:29,669 --> 00:17:27,760
september of last year

418
00:17:32,390 --> 00:17:29,679
by then the comet had disintegrated but

419
00:17:34,789 --> 00:17:32,400
it was a crazy idea then too

420
00:17:36,230 --> 00:17:34,799
uh it's really fascinating i think you

421
00:17:38,710 --> 00:17:36,240
know some of the questions that we are

422
00:17:42,310 --> 00:17:38,720
getting i'm wondering are these sort of

423
00:17:44,549 --> 00:17:42,320
uh fear generated in the people only in

424
00:17:46,390 --> 00:17:44,559
the northern hemisphere because if there

425
00:17:48,310 --> 00:17:46,400
is a winter solstice somewhere there is

426
00:17:51,830 --> 00:17:48,320
a summer solstice going on somewhere

427
00:17:54,230 --> 00:17:51,840
else and uh so obviously the inter

428
00:17:57,350 --> 00:17:54,240
planet is not affected so it's kind of

429
00:18:01,510 --> 00:17:59,909
and for a three-day blackout to occur

430
00:18:03,669 --> 00:18:01,520
something weird would have to happen

431
00:18:05,909 --> 00:18:03,679
with the sun and there's nothing we know

432
00:18:08,150 --> 00:18:05,919
of physically that would allow the sun

433
00:18:08,710 --> 00:18:08,160
to turn off for three days and then turn

434
00:18:11,110 --> 00:18:08,720
back on

435
00:18:12,470 --> 00:18:11,120
[Music]

436
00:18:14,310 --> 00:18:12,480
well thank you for shedding light on

437
00:18:16,070 --> 00:18:14,320
that question um hopefully people are

438
00:18:17,909 --> 00:18:16,080
tuning in they've been asking it

439
00:18:20,070 --> 00:18:17,919
we have one from twitter it's uh at

440
00:18:23,029 --> 00:18:20,080
ipod7223s

441
00:18:24,630 --> 00:18:23,039
been hearing a lot about uh nibiru

442
00:18:26,549 --> 00:18:24,640
the planet the fictional planet and how

443
00:18:29,909 --> 00:18:26,559
it spells certain doom for a little blue

444
00:18:31,990 --> 00:18:29,919
planet care to shed some light on this

445
00:18:34,230 --> 00:18:32,000
probably i have had more questions from

446
00:18:36,789 --> 00:18:34,240
the public about about this nibiru or

447
00:18:39,350 --> 00:18:36,799
planet x as they often call it and it's

448
00:18:42,390 --> 00:18:39,360
one of the associations also with nasa

449
00:18:44,310 --> 00:18:42,400
because some people go back to the 1983

450
00:18:46,230 --> 00:18:44,320
irs the first

451
00:18:48,630 --> 00:18:46,240
astronomical infrared satellite that

452
00:18:50,470 --> 00:18:48,640
carried out a survey and of course found

453
00:18:52,710 --> 00:18:50,480
many new objects that no one had seen

454
00:18:54,789 --> 00:18:52,720
before at the time there was a

455
00:18:57,510 --> 00:18:54,799
speculation that one or more of them

456
00:18:59,750 --> 00:18:57,520
might be a a new planet the outer edge

457
00:19:01,909 --> 00:18:59,760
of the solar system um

458
00:19:03,990 --> 00:19:01,919
that wasn't true it was uh

459
00:19:06,789 --> 00:19:04,000
the truth was found they were all extra

460
00:19:08,789 --> 00:19:06,799
galactic objects uh millions of light

461
00:19:10,789 --> 00:19:08,799
years away but there are people who

462
00:19:13,909 --> 00:19:10,799
think that somehow nasa has been doing a

463
00:19:16,549 --> 00:19:13,919
cover-up ever since a cover-up of a

464
00:19:18,230 --> 00:19:16,559
planet called nibiru are named by the

465
00:19:19,029 --> 00:19:18,240
ancient sumerians

466
00:19:22,789 --> 00:19:19,039
that

467
00:19:25,669 --> 00:19:22,799
in the normal description has a 36

468
00:19:29,110 --> 00:19:25,679
3600 year orbit so it comes back into

469
00:19:31,430 --> 00:19:29,120
the inner solar system every 3 600 years

470
00:19:33,669 --> 00:19:31,440
and each time it comes in

471
00:19:35,830 --> 00:19:33,679
it either hits the earth or almost hits

472
00:19:38,870 --> 00:19:35,840
the earth this time it's supposed to hit

473
00:19:41,990 --> 00:19:38,880
the earth and destroy us um

474
00:19:42,870 --> 00:19:42,000
and this is such a pervasive idea

475
00:19:45,669 --> 00:19:42,880
that

476
00:19:47,110 --> 00:19:45,679
makes no sense because if it were there

477
00:19:49,350 --> 00:19:47,120
we could see it

478
00:19:50,950 --> 00:19:49,360
if there were an object a planet as big

479
00:19:53,510 --> 00:19:50,960
as the earth or bigger that was headed

480
00:19:55,909 --> 00:19:53,520
into the inner solar system astronomers

481
00:19:57,669 --> 00:19:55,919
like don yeomans and the people he works

482
00:20:00,390 --> 00:19:57,679
with would have been tracking it for a

483
00:20:02,549 --> 00:20:00,400
decade at least and by now it would be

484
00:20:04,070 --> 00:20:02,559
the brightest object in the sky after

485
00:20:06,390 --> 00:20:04,080
the sun and moon

486
00:20:09,669 --> 00:20:06,400
anybody could go out and see it you can

487
00:20:11,270 --> 00:20:09,679
dispel this rumor yourself you don't

488
00:20:13,510 --> 00:20:11,280
have to ask the government or ask

489
00:20:17,029 --> 00:20:13,520
scientists just go out and look at the

490
00:20:19,110 --> 00:20:17,039
sky and you will find no new bright

491
00:20:22,070 --> 00:20:19,120
object headed for the earth

492
00:20:25,270 --> 00:20:22,080
similarly if there were such a plant its

493
00:20:27,350 --> 00:20:25,280
gravity would be messing with the orbits

494
00:20:29,669 --> 00:20:27,360
of the planets and again

495
00:20:32,310 --> 00:20:29,679
if you go look

496
00:20:34,870 --> 00:20:32,320
at what the scientists are studying

497
00:20:36,390 --> 00:20:34,880
there is no way that a change in the

498
00:20:40,390 --> 00:20:36,400
orbits of the planets would happen

499
00:20:44,310 --> 00:20:43,270
i think it's interesting to note as dave

500
00:20:46,310 --> 00:20:44,320
has pointed out

501
00:20:48,870 --> 00:20:46,320
many times that the the most recent

502
00:20:51,590 --> 00:20:48,880
prediction of nibiru coming close to the

503
00:20:52,549 --> 00:20:51,600
earth was provided by a lady

504
00:20:54,789 --> 00:20:52,559
nancy

505
00:20:55,750 --> 00:20:54,799
what's her name leader

506
00:20:58,310 --> 00:20:55,760
who

507
00:21:00,310 --> 00:20:58,320
claims to be channeling aliens around

508
00:21:01,270 --> 00:21:00,320
the star system zeta reticulite well

509
00:21:07,110 --> 00:21:01,280
that should

510
00:21:11,110 --> 00:21:08,549
changing subjects a little bit what is

511
00:21:14,149 --> 00:21:11,120
this polar shift theory that the earth

512
00:21:17,190 --> 00:21:14,159
uh cross does a 180 degree rotation two

513
00:21:21,430 --> 00:21:17,200
kinds of poles we have the pull of

514
00:21:22,870 --> 00:21:21,440
rotation the kind of imaginary stick or

515
00:21:24,549 --> 00:21:22,880
axis

516
00:21:27,029 --> 00:21:24,559
which is which goes through the earth

517
00:21:29,510 --> 00:21:27,039
and around which we spin is called our

518
00:21:32,870 --> 00:21:29,520
rotation pole and then we have another

519
00:21:35,029 --> 00:21:32,880
set of poles called the magnetic poles

520
00:21:38,070 --> 00:21:35,039
where the earth acts like a magnet and

521
00:21:41,430 --> 00:21:38,080
the magnetic influence has a north and

522
00:21:44,950 --> 00:21:41,440
south pole to it and over long

523
00:21:47,190 --> 00:21:44,960
geological periods the magnetic poles of

524
00:21:49,350 --> 00:21:47,200
the earth drift a little bit because of

525
00:21:52,470 --> 00:21:49,360
the complexity of the electrical

526
00:21:54,549 --> 00:21:52,480
currents inside our planet and also from

527
00:21:56,549 --> 00:21:54,559
time to time over time scales of

528
00:21:59,350 --> 00:21:56,559
millions of years or hundreds of

529
00:22:01,350 --> 00:21:59,360
thousands of years we can have a flip

530
00:22:03,669 --> 00:22:01,360
where the north pole becomes the south

531
00:22:06,549 --> 00:22:03,679
pole magnetically and the magnetic south

532
00:22:09,510 --> 00:22:06,559
becomes north somehow people have gotten

533
00:22:10,870 --> 00:22:09,520
that mixed up with the rotational pole

534
00:22:14,470 --> 00:22:10,880
so they say

535
00:22:16,470 --> 00:22:14,480
my goodness on december 21st in one day

536
00:22:18,630 --> 00:22:16,480
there's going to be a flip of the

537
00:22:20,470 --> 00:22:18,640
earth's rotation so that we're going to

538
00:22:22,789 --> 00:22:20,480
either rotate the other way or the whole

539
00:22:25,110 --> 00:22:22,799
planet is going to turn upside down this

540
00:22:27,590 --> 00:22:25,120
is absolutely ridiculous the force

541
00:22:29,909 --> 00:22:27,600
required to do that to change the way

542
00:22:32,710 --> 00:22:29,919
our planet rotates would require an

543
00:22:34,390 --> 00:22:32,720
enormous other body to come here and

544
00:22:36,630 --> 00:22:34,400
affect us and we've just heard that such

545
00:22:38,710 --> 00:22:36,640
a body would be immediately visible to

546
00:22:41,430 --> 00:22:38,720
all of us and without that there's no

547
00:22:43,590 --> 00:22:41,440
way to change the rotation of a huge

548
00:22:46,230 --> 00:22:43,600
planet like the earth so people get

549
00:22:49,190 --> 00:22:46,240
mixed up between the long geological

550
00:22:52,070 --> 00:22:49,200
trend of changes in our magnetic field

551
00:22:54,470 --> 00:22:52,080
and our rotation and as a result of this

552
00:22:56,390 --> 00:22:54,480
comes as doomsday rumor

553
00:22:58,710 --> 00:22:56,400
that on the winter solstice we're going

554
00:22:59,750 --> 00:22:58,720
to be rotating raw there's just nothing

555
00:23:01,590 --> 00:22:59,760
to that

556
00:23:03,830 --> 00:23:01,600
andy if that does uh if when the

557
00:23:05,430 --> 00:23:03,840
magnetic shift does happen could that

558
00:23:08,310 --> 00:23:05,440
impact life on earth

559
00:23:11,510 --> 00:23:08,320
well we we have never during historic

560
00:23:14,070 --> 00:23:11,520
times experience such a magnetic change

561
00:23:16,070 --> 00:23:14,080
but we do know that it's a very gradual

562
00:23:18,310 --> 00:23:16,080
process it would happen over a long

563
00:23:20,470 --> 00:23:18,320
period of time perhaps thousands of

564
00:23:22,870 --> 00:23:20,480
years and we know that it's happened we

565
00:23:25,110 --> 00:23:22,880
have geological evidence from the rocks

566
00:23:27,510 --> 00:23:25,120
where the magnetism is recorded that

567
00:23:30,710 --> 00:23:27,520
it's happened many times and yet life on

568
00:23:32,789 --> 00:23:30,720
earth has continued to thrive and evolve

569
00:23:34,789 --> 00:23:32,799
so there may well be a little bit more

570
00:23:37,029 --> 00:23:34,799
radiation there may be more particles

571
00:23:39,590 --> 00:23:37,039
coming from space when the magnetic

572
00:23:41,590 --> 00:23:39,600
field of the earth changes but certainly

573
00:23:43,990 --> 00:23:41,600
we know that life has survived and we're

574
00:23:45,669 --> 00:23:44,000
all still here

575
00:23:48,390 --> 00:23:45,679
thank you and here's a question that we

576
00:23:50,789 --> 00:23:48,400
know is a real danger to earth and

577
00:23:52,789 --> 00:23:50,799
that's being hit by a meteor uh is there

578
00:23:54,630 --> 00:23:52,799
any danger or possibility this could

579
00:23:56,950 --> 00:23:54,640
happen in the year 2012 sometime in

580
00:23:59,430 --> 00:23:56,960
december

581
00:24:01,430 --> 00:23:59,440
no the the earth is actually hit by

582
00:24:03,430 --> 00:24:01,440
meteors on a daily basis i mean

583
00:24:06,230 --> 00:24:03,440
basketball-sized objects come in a

584
00:24:07,830 --> 00:24:06,240
couple times a day they don't do any

585
00:24:08,950 --> 00:24:07,840
damage because they burn up the earth's

586
00:24:11,190 --> 00:24:08,960
atmosphere

587
00:24:13,669 --> 00:24:11,200
volkswagen size objects come in every

588
00:24:14,950 --> 00:24:13,679
couple of weeks again they're too small

589
00:24:16,710 --> 00:24:14,960
to make it all the way through the

590
00:24:19,350 --> 00:24:16,720
earth's atmosphere but they are recorded

591
00:24:20,390 --> 00:24:19,360
by downloading defense department

592
00:24:24,230 --> 00:24:20,400
sensors

593
00:24:25,909 --> 00:24:24,240
so the earth is plummeted with

594
00:24:27,990 --> 00:24:25,919
hundreds of

595
00:24:28,789 --> 00:24:28,000
tons of material every day

596
00:24:31,269 --> 00:24:28,799
but

597
00:24:32,789 --> 00:24:31,279
in order for an object to come through

598
00:24:35,590 --> 00:24:32,799
the earth's atmosphere and cause ground

599
00:24:38,470 --> 00:24:35,600
damage it has to be about 40 meters in

600
00:24:39,590 --> 00:24:38,480
diameter or larger and those types of

601
00:24:42,230 --> 00:24:39,600
objects

602
00:24:43,990 --> 00:24:42,240
don't occur but every 500 years and we

603
00:24:45,510 --> 00:24:44,000
know of no objects that are really of a

604
00:24:46,710 --> 00:24:45,520
concern

605
00:24:48,549 --> 00:24:46,720
to earth

606
00:24:51,110 --> 00:24:48,559
either this december or for the next

607
00:24:53,190 --> 00:24:51,120
several years

608
00:24:54,470 --> 00:24:53,200
thanks

609
00:24:57,029 --> 00:24:54,480
go ahead

610
00:24:59,269 --> 00:24:57,039
should you perhaps add that

611
00:25:02,549 --> 00:24:59,279
that we know these things because of the

612
00:25:05,510 --> 00:25:02,559
nasa space guard survey that there is a

613
00:25:07,510 --> 00:25:05,520
real long-term concern about possible

614
00:25:11,029 --> 00:25:07,520
impacts and that's why for the last

615
00:25:12,870 --> 00:25:11,039
almost 20 years uh we have been scanning

616
00:25:15,590 --> 00:25:12,880
the sky specifically looking for

617
00:25:17,990 --> 00:25:15,600
asteroids near earth asteroids and have

618
00:25:20,950 --> 00:25:18,000
a catalog of about 10 000 of them now

619
00:25:22,950 --> 00:25:20,960
with determined orbits and i always

620
00:25:25,269 --> 00:25:22,960
mention to people that one result of

621
00:25:27,510 --> 00:25:25,279
that is there has not been a single

622
00:25:29,510 --> 00:25:27,520
object found that's on a collision

623
00:25:31,830 --> 00:25:29,520
course with earth

624
00:25:33,669 --> 00:25:31,840
that's true i should mention the nasa

625
00:25:35,669 --> 00:25:33,679
program near earth object program that

626
00:25:37,830 --> 00:25:35,679
is actively searching the skies on a

627
00:25:40,149 --> 00:25:37,840
nightly basis and finding more and more

628
00:25:42,230 --> 00:25:40,159
of these objects so that we can

629
00:25:44,230 --> 00:25:42,240
take the observations they provide and

630
00:25:46,070 --> 00:25:44,240
make predictions of where these objects

631
00:25:48,070 --> 00:25:46,080
will be in the future and if they do get

632
00:25:49,510 --> 00:25:48,080
close which they do from time to time in

633
00:25:52,549 --> 00:25:49,520
fact we had one hit

634
00:25:54,470 --> 00:25:52,559
in 2008 uh a small one over northern

635
00:25:55,750 --> 00:25:54,480
sudan and we predicted that one

636
00:25:58,470 --> 00:25:55,760
correctly so

637
00:26:00,950 --> 00:25:58,480
whereas 30 years ago or

638
00:26:03,029 --> 00:26:00,960
there was very little effort by anyone

639
00:26:05,110 --> 00:26:03,039
to observe and track these objects that

640
00:26:08,390 --> 00:26:05,120
is not the case any longer nasa is uh

641
00:26:11,350 --> 00:26:08,400
very aware of this issue and is

642
00:26:13,510 --> 00:26:11,360
making great strides to predict any

643
00:26:15,510 --> 00:26:13,520
large objects that are incoming and i

644
00:26:16,710 --> 00:26:15,520
would add to that as i'm sure you would

645
00:26:19,110 --> 00:26:16,720
but the uh

646
00:26:21,909 --> 00:26:19,120
that the information is all made public

647
00:26:24,870 --> 00:26:21,919
that you have a beautiful website uh

648
00:26:26,789 --> 00:26:24,880
updated every day there's no sort of

649
00:26:29,110 --> 00:26:26,799
secrecy governing these objects and

650
00:26:30,950 --> 00:26:29,120
people can go look for themselves

651
00:26:32,310 --> 00:26:30,960
for all the known objects and the newly

652
00:26:33,510 --> 00:26:32,320
discovered ones and see what their

653
00:26:34,549 --> 00:26:33,520
orbits are

654
00:26:36,230 --> 00:26:34,559
that's true

655
00:26:38,630 --> 00:26:36,240
in fact we even have a widget that's

656
00:26:41,110 --> 00:26:38,640
available giving the next five close

657
00:26:44,310 --> 00:26:41,120
earth approaches and we have a twitter

658
00:26:45,430 --> 00:26:44,320
feed that has something like 950 000

659
00:26:48,230 --> 00:26:45,440
uh

660
00:26:49,830 --> 00:26:48,240
people taking part so there's full

661
00:26:51,350 --> 00:26:49,840
transparency

662
00:26:52,390 --> 00:26:51,360
everything is put out there immediately

663
00:26:53,909 --> 00:26:52,400
on our website

664
00:26:55,590 --> 00:26:53,919
we couldn't

665
00:26:57,590 --> 00:26:55,600
keep a secret even if we wanted to so

666
00:26:59,430 --> 00:26:57,600
it's it's all out there

667
00:27:01,909 --> 00:26:59,440
almost immediately

668
00:27:04,390 --> 00:27:01,919
i i think i'd like to add to it it is

669
00:27:06,630 --> 00:27:04,400
not a concern just for nasa or for

670
00:27:10,070 --> 00:27:06,640
united states it's an international

671
00:27:12,950 --> 00:27:10,080
concern and there is actually an active

672
00:27:15,110 --> 00:27:12,960
agenda within united nations committee

673
00:27:16,149 --> 00:27:15,120
on peaceful use of outer space that

674
00:27:19,029 --> 00:27:16,159
actually

675
00:27:21,830 --> 00:27:19,039
looks at near our asteroid and it's not

676
00:27:23,909 --> 00:27:21,840
nasa but many other countries join in

677
00:27:25,830 --> 00:27:23,919
with their telescopes to really track

678
00:27:28,310 --> 00:27:25,840
these objects so

679
00:27:30,070 --> 00:27:28,320
i i think um as an international

680
00:27:33,029 --> 00:27:30,080
community we are

681
00:27:35,029 --> 00:27:33,039
we are very aware of the consequences of

682
00:27:37,909 --> 00:27:35,039
such an object and we are keeping eyes

683
00:27:40,630 --> 00:27:37,919
on this so this this is this is an

684
00:27:42,149 --> 00:27:40,640
important topic and it is on everyone's

685
00:27:44,470 --> 00:27:42,159
radar screen

686
00:27:46,230 --> 00:27:44,480
i think it's very good to point that out

687
00:27:49,590 --> 00:27:46,240
because many of the people who write to

688
00:27:51,590 --> 00:27:49,600
me just don't understand how astronomy

689
00:27:53,909 --> 00:27:51,600
and nasa work they think that somehow

690
00:27:55,909 --> 00:27:53,919
nasa controls all the telescopes in the

691
00:27:58,149 --> 00:27:55,919
world and paul i know you control a lot

692
00:27:59,909 --> 00:27:58,159
of them but not all of them

693
00:28:02,950 --> 00:27:59,919
that the astronomers of the world all

694
00:28:05,510 --> 00:28:02,960
work for nasa and so nasa has a a

695
00:28:07,590 --> 00:28:05,520
control on information when in fact

696
00:28:09,190 --> 00:28:07,600
there is a wide international

697
00:28:11,510 --> 00:28:09,200
astronomical

698
00:28:13,669 --> 00:28:11,520
community in the case of something like

699
00:28:15,750 --> 00:28:13,679
nibiru there are at least a hundred

700
00:28:18,310 --> 00:28:15,760
thousand astronomers amateur and

701
00:28:20,230 --> 00:28:18,320
professional in 100 different countries

702
00:28:23,430 --> 00:28:20,240
that could have been looking so so

703
00:28:25,590 --> 00:28:23,440
there's no possibility of hiding

704
00:28:27,269 --> 00:28:25,600
something that's in the sky

705
00:28:30,149 --> 00:28:27,279
and let me just add

706
00:28:33,110 --> 00:28:30,159
don pointed out that all of our uh data

707
00:28:35,029 --> 00:28:33,120
on the asteroids that we're tracking is

708
00:28:37,430 --> 00:28:35,039
put on the web for everybody take

709
00:28:40,070 --> 00:28:37,440
advantage of that's in fact true of all

710
00:28:43,269 --> 00:28:40,080
nasa as data whether it's astronomical

711
00:28:45,430 --> 00:28:43,279
data planetary data solar data or earth

712
00:28:47,590 --> 00:28:45,440
science data you can go to the web and

713
00:28:49,510 --> 00:28:47,600
get access to all the data that nasa's

714
00:28:51,190 --> 00:28:49,520
satellites are collecting we make it

715
00:28:52,549 --> 00:28:51,200
available so that all scientists around

716
00:28:54,149 --> 00:28:52,559
the world can use it and we make it

717
00:28:55,669 --> 00:28:54,159
available so that all interested

718
00:28:59,190 --> 00:28:55,679
citizens can learn from it and take

719
00:29:01,110 --> 00:28:59,200
advantage of it

720
00:29:02,230 --> 00:29:01,120
thanks everyone that's a really thorough

721
00:29:03,590 --> 00:29:02,240
explanation

722
00:29:07,430 --> 00:29:03,600
we have i think we've touched on this

723
00:29:09,110 --> 00:29:07,440
before but on twitter sophie emma asked

724
00:29:11,029 --> 00:29:09,120
could the black hole found the center of

725
00:29:13,190 --> 00:29:11,039
the milky way have an effect on earth is

726
00:29:15,990 --> 00:29:13,200
that a possibility at all

727
00:29:17,909 --> 00:29:16,000
i'll take that one and the answer is no

728
00:29:21,029 --> 00:29:17,919
as as we've already pointed out that

729
00:29:23,590 --> 00:29:21,039
black hole is 28 000 light years away

730
00:29:25,269 --> 00:29:23,600
which is uh tremendously distant

731
00:29:27,830 --> 00:29:25,279
not only that but of course the reason

732
00:29:30,630 --> 00:29:27,840
why we call black holes black holes is

733
00:29:32,470 --> 00:29:30,640
because they don't emit any radiation

734
00:29:34,389 --> 00:29:32,480
that they only have gravitational

735
00:29:36,789 --> 00:29:34,399
attraction um the gravitational

736
00:29:38,870 --> 00:29:36,799
attraction is as i mentioned before less

737
00:29:41,110 --> 00:29:38,880
than one millionth that from the earth

738
00:29:43,029 --> 00:29:41,120
we can't even see the black hole at the

739
00:29:44,630 --> 00:29:43,039
center of the galaxy the only reason we

740
00:29:47,110 --> 00:29:44,640
know it's there is because we can see

741
00:29:48,549 --> 00:29:47,120
stars orbiting it and that's how we can

742
00:29:49,590 --> 00:29:48,559
detect it and we can measure its

743
00:29:50,950 --> 00:29:49,600
brightness

744
00:29:53,510 --> 00:29:50,960
we can also see

745
00:29:55,430 --> 00:29:53,520
x-rays from dust that falls into the

746
00:29:58,310 --> 00:29:55,440
black hole at the center of the galaxy

747
00:30:01,269 --> 00:29:58,320
but those x-rays are so far away that

748
00:30:05,350 --> 00:30:01,279
they have no impact even on stars in

749
00:30:09,909 --> 00:30:06,710
thank you have another question from

750
00:30:11,830 --> 00:30:09,919
twitter it's ramon underscore 305 asks

751
00:30:13,430 --> 00:30:11,840
do you have any news on solar activity

752
00:30:16,310 --> 00:30:13,440
what are the chances of a major solar

753
00:30:17,990 --> 00:30:16,320
flare hitting earth's atmosphere

754
00:30:20,549 --> 00:30:18,000
i'll take that one first and which

755
00:30:23,029 --> 00:30:20,559
probably will join me um

756
00:30:26,310 --> 00:30:23,039
i i think we have lots of news on solar

757
00:30:28,710 --> 00:30:26,320
activity for one uh in this case it

758
00:30:31,029 --> 00:30:28,720
happens to be nasa nasa spacecraft has

759
00:30:33,350 --> 00:30:31,039
literally surrounded the sun we have

760
00:30:36,470 --> 00:30:33,360
many spacecraft that is looking at the

761
00:30:38,630 --> 00:30:36,480
sun from different vantage point and so

762
00:30:41,750 --> 00:30:38,640
there is nothing that happens on the

763
00:30:44,070 --> 00:30:41,760
surface of the sun that goes unnoticed

764
00:30:46,950 --> 00:30:44,080
by the spacecraft so we are able to

765
00:30:49,350 --> 00:30:46,960
track the progression of solar activity

766
00:30:52,070 --> 00:30:49,360
now we all know that the sun goes

767
00:30:54,549 --> 00:30:52,080
through an activity cycle every 11 years

768
00:30:57,190 --> 00:30:54,559
what you find are that the magnetic

769
00:30:59,669 --> 00:30:57,200
field on the sun increases and then

770
00:31:02,149 --> 00:30:59,679
decreases and what happens as a

771
00:31:04,630 --> 00:31:02,159
phenomenon on the photosphere of the sun

772
00:31:06,789 --> 00:31:04,640
are the sunspot numbers increases and

773
00:31:09,029 --> 00:31:06,799
then sun sunspot number decreases

774
00:31:12,230 --> 00:31:09,039
sometimes it just completely vanishes

775
00:31:14,710 --> 00:31:12,240
from the uh you know photosphere or the

776
00:31:17,269 --> 00:31:14,720
uh lit up side of the sun and that's

777
00:31:18,389 --> 00:31:17,279
what we call a solar cycle maximum to

778
00:31:20,549 --> 00:31:18,399
minimum

779
00:31:23,110 --> 00:31:20,559
in the space age that we have been

780
00:31:26,549 --> 00:31:23,120
tracking the sun let's say like

781
00:31:28,950 --> 00:31:26,559
some 50 years what we have seen in solar

782
00:31:30,630 --> 00:31:28,960
activity is that the solar activity had

783
00:31:34,230 --> 00:31:30,640
been on the rise

784
00:31:37,909 --> 00:31:34,240
up until this last solar minimum the

785
00:31:38,950 --> 00:31:37,919
solar minimum of the last cycle 23 was

786
00:31:42,310 --> 00:31:38,960
rather

787
00:31:44,549 --> 00:31:42,320
long and protruded uh solar minimum you

788
00:31:46,470 --> 00:31:44,559
know they were almost um almost two

789
00:31:50,230 --> 00:31:46,480
years when we had uh

790
00:31:53,269 --> 00:31:50,240
very few sunspot or no sunspots at all

791
00:31:55,990 --> 00:31:53,279
and as we came out of that

792
00:31:59,269 --> 00:31:56,000
solar cycle solar minimum and started

793
00:32:01,909 --> 00:31:59,279
rising into solar cycle 24 you know noah

794
00:32:02,950 --> 00:32:01,919
does the prediction for um

795
00:32:08,950 --> 00:32:02,960
solar

796
00:32:10,710 --> 00:32:08,960
earth and what what they determine is

797
00:32:12,710 --> 00:32:10,720
that there is a scale you know it's not

798
00:32:15,750 --> 00:32:12,720
a very real thing and i'll show you a

799
00:32:18,549 --> 00:32:15,760
graph from the outside that told us you

800
00:32:21,029 --> 00:32:18,559
know what would this cycle look like and

801
00:32:23,350 --> 00:32:21,039
every solar cycle scientists kind of

802
00:32:25,430 --> 00:32:23,360
come together and bat around and you

803
00:32:27,350 --> 00:32:25,440
know come to some kind of understanding

804
00:32:30,070 --> 00:32:27,360
what is our expectation based on the

805
00:32:32,870 --> 00:32:30,080
latest understanding of physics

806
00:32:36,549 --> 00:32:32,880
and so what we are finding in this solar

807
00:32:38,950 --> 00:32:36,559
cycle in this solar cycle is sort of the

808
00:32:43,190 --> 00:32:38,960
wimpiest solar cycle in the space age it

809
00:32:44,710 --> 00:32:43,200
is lower than what we had even expected

810
00:32:46,789 --> 00:32:44,720
um so

811
00:32:49,190 --> 00:32:46,799
now why is that important

812
00:32:50,389 --> 00:32:49,200
storms happen all the time on the sun

813
00:32:53,430 --> 00:32:50,399
okay

814
00:32:55,750 --> 00:32:53,440
if you have a strong solar cycle the

815
00:32:58,230 --> 00:32:55,760
frequency of the storms increases but

816
00:33:00,310 --> 00:32:58,240
their intensity has nothing to do with

817
00:33:02,230 --> 00:33:00,320
the frequency so you can have a weak

818
00:33:04,710 --> 00:33:02,240
solar cycle and you can still have a

819
00:33:07,590 --> 00:33:04,720
really strong solar storm but the

820
00:33:09,830 --> 00:33:07,600
frequency is the one that gives us sort

821
00:33:12,710 --> 00:33:09,840
of a probabilistic sense right so the

822
00:33:15,509 --> 00:33:12,720
question is is there going to be a solar

823
00:33:17,909 --> 00:33:15,519
storm you know sufficiently large that

824
00:33:20,470 --> 00:33:17,919
can hit us right and that it's a

825
00:33:23,269 --> 00:33:20,480
probabilistic question these questions

826
00:33:26,070 --> 00:33:23,279
are like uh the questions we ask of you

827
00:33:29,029 --> 00:33:26,080
know hundred year flood hundred year

828
00:33:31,350 --> 00:33:29,039
super volcano something like that can it

829
00:33:33,750 --> 00:33:31,360
happen you know we can't say it won't

830
00:33:35,509 --> 00:33:33,760
happen but we have enough understanding

831
00:33:37,990 --> 00:33:35,519
to say that it doesn't look like

832
00:33:42,149 --> 00:33:38,000
something like that is going to happen

833
00:33:45,269 --> 00:33:42,159
but even if we were to get a really

834
00:33:48,230 --> 00:33:45,279
large uh solar storm the interesting

835
00:33:50,950 --> 00:33:48,240
thing is that now we because we can see

836
00:33:53,029 --> 00:33:50,960
and track the sun from all sides we can

837
00:33:55,509 --> 00:33:53,039
actually predict that there is an active

838
00:33:57,990 --> 00:33:55,519
region emerging that the active region

839
00:34:00,870 --> 00:33:58,000
has the potential to create a really

840
00:34:03,110 --> 00:34:00,880
large storm so we can start warning

841
00:34:06,389 --> 00:34:03,120
people we meaning noah in this case we

842
00:34:08,310 --> 00:34:06,399
work closely with noah uh and and what

843
00:34:10,629 --> 00:34:08,320
we can do is we

844
00:34:13,669 --> 00:34:10,639
we can turn off our sensitive

845
00:34:16,629 --> 00:34:13,679
electronics our power grid anything that

846
00:34:19,510 --> 00:34:16,639
is sort of electromagnetic in nature has

847
00:34:20,550 --> 00:34:19,520
the potential to be impacted by solar

848
00:34:26,629 --> 00:34:20,560
storms

849
00:34:29,430 --> 00:34:26,639
effect on human beings in terms of a

850
00:34:32,069 --> 00:34:29,440
huge radiation or there is no fire

851
00:34:34,950 --> 00:34:32,079
created none of those but

852
00:34:38,069 --> 00:34:34,960
electronics can be severely damaged and

853
00:34:40,710 --> 00:34:38,079
as we know uh our societies are becoming

854
00:34:42,869 --> 00:34:40,720
more and more uh technologically

855
00:34:46,149 --> 00:34:42,879
dependent so if you were to ask me are

856
00:34:49,030 --> 00:34:46,159
we going to get a major solar flare on

857
00:34:50,950 --> 00:34:49,040
december 21st i could tell you something

858
00:34:54,550 --> 00:34:50,960
because we are actually looking at the

859
00:34:56,950 --> 00:34:54,560
sun and it takes about al almost a month

860
00:35:00,950 --> 00:34:56,960
let's say from the far side of the sun

861
00:35:03,270 --> 00:35:00,960
to come in front of us and today is 28

862
00:35:05,030 --> 00:35:03,280
so i can say you know what we can

863
00:35:08,310 --> 00:35:05,040
already because we have spacecraft

864
00:35:10,550 --> 00:35:08,320
stereo stereo b soho solar dynamics

865
00:35:12,630 --> 00:35:10,560
observatory we know all the sunspots

866
00:35:15,589 --> 00:35:12,640
that's out there that's coming towards

867
00:35:18,230 --> 00:35:15,599
uh we can actually penetrate beneath the

868
00:35:21,430 --> 00:35:18,240
sun also with our telescopes and say

869
00:35:23,829 --> 00:35:21,440
what is emerging so we will have a

870
00:35:27,430 --> 00:35:23,839
pretty good idea if something is forming

871
00:35:29,829 --> 00:35:27,440
rapidly and coming at us so i i think um

872
00:35:32,390 --> 00:35:29,839
i think we'll be able to warn you guide

873
00:35:34,630 --> 00:35:32,400
you uh it is very unlikely that we are

874
00:35:36,550 --> 00:35:34,640
going to get something huge

875
00:35:38,230 --> 00:35:36,560
would you like to respond to the

876
00:35:40,870 --> 00:35:38,240
question that i've received several

877
00:35:43,109 --> 00:35:40,880
times the people say ah it's not just

878
00:35:45,589 --> 00:35:43,119
the sun but there is a tear in our

879
00:35:47,670 --> 00:35:45,599
magnetosphere that the magnetosphere is

880
00:35:50,150 --> 00:35:47,680
collapsing that our natural protection

881
00:35:53,589 --> 00:35:50,160
is going away uh how do you answer that

882
00:35:55,750 --> 00:35:53,599
question uh then yes

883
00:35:57,589 --> 00:35:55,760
it is going to be a little bit difficult

884
00:35:59,270 --> 00:35:57,599
in terms of because it's a technical

885
00:36:02,630 --> 00:35:59,280
jargon but let's talk about the

886
00:36:05,349 --> 00:36:02,640
magnetosphere how are we protected uh

887
00:36:06,790 --> 00:36:05,359
from these solar particles that come and

888
00:36:09,190 --> 00:36:06,800
impinge on us you know there were

889
00:36:12,710 --> 00:36:09,200
questions before you know about polar

890
00:36:15,670 --> 00:36:12,720
shift and all that now earth is uh

891
00:36:18,069 --> 00:36:15,680
tremendously blessed and lucky that it

892
00:36:21,109 --> 00:36:18,079
has a magnetosphere in fact i might even

893
00:36:23,589 --> 00:36:21,119
venture as far out to say that perhaps

894
00:36:25,829 --> 00:36:23,599
this magnetosphere which kind of shields

895
00:36:30,390 --> 00:36:25,839
us like a cocoon from these harmful

896
00:36:32,630 --> 00:36:30,400
radiations of the sun has enabled life

897
00:36:35,109 --> 00:36:32,640
to have been generated

898
00:36:37,109 --> 00:36:35,119
on this planet now what happens when

899
00:36:39,349 --> 00:36:37,119
these particles come and impinge on the

900
00:36:41,750 --> 00:36:39,359
magnetosphere these are all magnetic

901
00:36:44,790 --> 00:36:41,760
field lines connecting with each other

902
00:36:46,710 --> 00:36:44,800
there is reconnection happening and when

903
00:36:50,950 --> 00:36:46,720
this reconnection happens these

904
00:36:53,270 --> 00:36:50,960
particles can actually propagate into

905
00:36:55,030 --> 00:36:53,280
our planet and then this is when we

906
00:36:57,430 --> 00:36:55,040
begin to see

907
00:37:00,870 --> 00:36:57,440
if we are seeing an aurora the northern

908
00:37:03,670 --> 00:37:00,880
and southern lights that tells us that a

909
00:37:06,630 --> 00:37:03,680
solar storm has actually

910
00:37:09,670 --> 00:37:06,640
generated a geomagnetic storm which is a

911
00:37:12,470 --> 00:37:09,680
storm in our own planet and then these

912
00:37:15,270 --> 00:37:12,480
particles can actually propagate down

913
00:37:16,790 --> 00:37:15,280
create electromagnetic fluctuation uh

914
00:37:20,390 --> 00:37:16,800
which creates you know different

915
00:37:23,349 --> 00:37:20,400
conditions in the ionosphere that um

916
00:37:26,230 --> 00:37:23,359
controls our a lot of our satellites for

917
00:37:29,349 --> 00:37:26,240
communication navigation etc furthermore

918
00:37:31,990 --> 00:37:29,359
this these fluctuations have the ability

919
00:37:34,390 --> 00:37:32,000
to really produce huge amount of voltage

920
00:37:36,710 --> 00:37:34,400
fluctuation on power grid which can get

921
00:37:38,790 --> 00:37:36,720
tripped and which can actually go out

922
00:37:42,790 --> 00:37:38,800
and these things have happened like in

923
00:37:45,510 --> 00:37:42,800
1989 hydroquebec failure that's how you

924
00:37:48,230 --> 00:37:45,520
can be in darkness because your power

925
00:37:51,109 --> 00:37:48,240
system failed so yes

926
00:37:54,310 --> 00:37:51,119
these particles can penetrate through

927
00:37:57,430 --> 00:37:54,320
our magnetosphere but even that we are

928
00:38:00,230 --> 00:37:57,440
able to kind of guide people through

929
00:38:03,349 --> 00:38:00,240
whether a particular storm has the kind

930
00:38:05,990 --> 00:38:03,359
of magnetic field orientation that will

931
00:38:08,390 --> 00:38:06,000
allow it to connect up with our own

932
00:38:10,790 --> 00:38:08,400
magnetosphere but but the question the

933
00:38:12,550 --> 00:38:10,800
question that i get is that somehow

934
00:38:15,510 --> 00:38:12,560
something recently has happened that the

935
00:38:17,670 --> 00:38:15,520
magnetosphere is going away and uh and i

936
00:38:19,670 --> 00:38:17,680
think you're saying it's that's not true

937
00:38:22,710 --> 00:38:19,680
that it's uh it's still there and it's

938
00:38:24,630 --> 00:38:22,720
still protecting us it's very much there

939
00:38:27,109 --> 00:38:24,640
and in fact we just launched another

940
00:38:30,630 --> 00:38:27,119
pair of satellites uh called ben allen

941
00:38:33,910 --> 00:38:30,640
probes uh some of those results will be

942
00:38:36,790 --> 00:38:33,920
uh during this upcoming meeting that uh

943
00:38:39,750 --> 00:38:36,800
clearly shows that our magnetosphere not

944
00:38:41,910 --> 00:38:39,760
only exists sometimes it creates kind of

945
00:38:45,270 --> 00:38:41,920
new radiation bells because of its

946
00:38:47,670 --> 00:38:45,280
interaction uh with the solar energetic

947
00:38:49,750 --> 00:38:47,680
particles

948
00:38:51,829 --> 00:38:49,760
you know and actually that aside from

949
00:38:53,750 --> 00:38:51,839
solar flares what

950
00:38:55,349 --> 00:38:53,760
what kind of solar activity eventually

951
00:38:57,109 --> 00:38:55,359
whether it's thousand million years from

952
00:38:59,270 --> 00:38:57,119
now could eventually impact life here on

953
00:39:01,349 --> 00:38:59,280
earth uh i mean i'm assuming that

954
00:39:04,150 --> 00:39:01,359
eventually something with the sun

955
00:39:05,750 --> 00:39:04,160
expansion or uh will eventually could

956
00:39:07,190 --> 00:39:05,760
could have an impact what what is that

957
00:39:08,710 --> 00:39:07,200
and when would that estimate it be where

958
00:39:11,270 --> 00:39:08,720
we could look at something that could

959
00:39:13,510 --> 00:39:11,280
have a major impact that we know are you

960
00:39:17,109 --> 00:39:13,520
talking of the sun as an astrophysical

961
00:39:19,750 --> 00:39:17,119
object yes morphs into you know sun is

962
00:39:22,950 --> 00:39:19,760
kind of a very ordinary star so it's not

963
00:39:26,870 --> 00:39:22,960
going to produce a supernova and i think

964
00:39:29,510 --> 00:39:26,880
all it will do is become a red giant you

965
00:39:32,710 --> 00:39:29,520
know and then it it's going to expand

966
00:39:36,470 --> 00:39:32,720
tremendously and at some point uh i

967
00:39:39,829 --> 00:39:36,480
think it's going to envelop our um

968
00:39:42,230 --> 00:39:39,839
planet earth and go all the way to mars

969
00:39:44,470 --> 00:39:42,240
but that that that's billions of years

970
00:39:54,230 --> 00:39:44,480
away and i will ask

971
00:39:59,030 --> 00:39:56,630
paul you with us

972
00:40:01,510 --> 00:39:59,040
sorry i was muted um

973
00:40:03,910 --> 00:40:01,520
the sun is a fairly ordinary star uh

974
00:40:05,990 --> 00:40:03,920
we've observed many stars similar to the

975
00:40:08,870 --> 00:40:06,000
sun throughout the galaxy at different

976
00:40:11,190 --> 00:40:08,880
stages of their evolution um our best

977
00:40:12,950 --> 00:40:11,200
understanding of the future of the sun

978
00:40:15,109 --> 00:40:12,960
which we can only get from looking at

979
00:40:17,190 --> 00:40:15,119
other stars that are older in the sun

980
00:40:19,670 --> 00:40:17,200
and therefore have gone through later

981
00:40:22,390 --> 00:40:19,680
stages of their life than the sun has is

982
00:40:23,990 --> 00:40:22,400
that the sun will indeed uh

983
00:40:26,790 --> 00:40:24,000
use up the hydrogen at the center of its

984
00:40:29,910 --> 00:40:26,800
core that will cause it to expand into a

985
00:40:32,310 --> 00:40:29,920
red giant um it will eventually get as

986
00:40:34,230 --> 00:40:32,320
certainly as big as the orbit of venus

987
00:40:36,630 --> 00:40:34,240
we don't know if it will get out to the

988
00:40:38,470 --> 00:40:36,640
orbit of the earth but it will certainly

989
00:40:41,030 --> 00:40:38,480
change the weather on the earth in the

990
00:40:43,190 --> 00:40:41,040
climate quite substantially

991
00:40:45,510 --> 00:40:43,200
but in case anybody is getting concerned

992
00:40:48,390 --> 00:40:45,520
about this happening in december that's

993
00:40:50,390 --> 00:40:48,400
not the case this will happen in about 5

994
00:40:52,470 --> 00:40:50,400
billion years

995
00:40:55,430 --> 00:40:52,480
and so we have plenty of time to

996
00:40:57,430 --> 00:40:55,440
contemplate what we might do uh in five

997
00:40:59,829 --> 00:40:57,440
billion years when the sun

998
00:41:01,990 --> 00:40:59,839
reaches later parts of its lifetime

999
00:41:07,750 --> 00:41:02,000
so i'm not taking out red giant

1000
00:41:11,589 --> 00:41:09,349
uh this is a this is just a general

1001
00:41:13,349 --> 00:41:11,599
question for everybody i suppose are

1002
00:41:16,230 --> 00:41:13,359
there in your field are there any

1003
00:41:18,150 --> 00:41:16,240
threats to earth in 2012 or any time the

1004
00:41:20,150 --> 00:41:18,160
near future that we should be concerned

1005
00:41:21,030 --> 00:41:20,160
about

1006
00:41:22,950 --> 00:41:21,040
yes

1007
00:41:25,750 --> 00:41:22,960
i think there's any credible threats uh

1008
00:41:27,349 --> 00:41:25,760
that we know about in the near future of

1009
00:41:29,510 --> 00:41:27,359
there's an interesting close earth

1010
00:41:31,750 --> 00:41:29,520
approach by an asteroid called

1011
00:41:34,309 --> 00:41:31,760
2012 da14

1012
00:41:35,190 --> 00:41:34,319
uh next february 15th it's going to pass

1013
00:41:37,829 --> 00:41:35,200
within

1014
00:41:39,990 --> 00:41:37,839
four and a half earth radii

1015
00:41:43,030 --> 00:41:40,000
of the earth's surface which is within

1016
00:41:44,470 --> 00:41:43,040
the geosynchronous satellite belts so

1017
00:41:46,470 --> 00:41:44,480
you've got this object that's coming

1018
00:41:49,349 --> 00:41:46,480
closer to the earth

1019
00:41:51,670 --> 00:41:49,359
and you've got satellites further away

1020
00:41:53,750 --> 00:41:51,680
there will be announcing its arrival

1021
00:41:56,069 --> 00:41:53,760
it's uh it's an object that's whose

1022
00:41:59,349 --> 00:41:56,079
orbit is well known uh it cannot get any

1023
00:42:01,030 --> 00:41:59,359
closer than uh four and a half uh earth

1024
00:42:03,270 --> 00:42:01,040
radii so it's going to be an interesting

1025
00:42:06,870 --> 00:42:03,280
target for astronomers especially radar

1026
00:42:09,510 --> 00:42:06,880
astronomers but it's it's not a threat

1027
00:42:11,349 --> 00:42:09,520
from an astronomical point of view 2012

1028
00:42:13,109 --> 00:42:11,359
is like any other year

1029
00:42:14,630 --> 00:42:13,119
the earth goes around the sun the earth

1030
00:42:16,390 --> 00:42:14,640
rotates the sun is moving through

1031
00:42:18,710 --> 00:42:16,400
interstellar space all the planets are

1032
00:42:21,430 --> 00:42:18,720
in their orbits and there's nothing

1033
00:42:23,670 --> 00:42:21,440
happening this year that's special

1034
00:42:25,750 --> 00:42:23,680
so if i can give you a slightly

1035
00:42:28,150 --> 00:42:25,760
whimsical answer but i think a

1036
00:42:31,430 --> 00:42:28,160
relatively important one i think one of

1037
00:42:33,670 --> 00:42:31,440
the greatest threats to earth in 2012

1038
00:42:35,990 --> 00:42:33,680
is the low level of science education

1039
00:42:37,910 --> 00:42:36,000
and public knowledge and i think this

1040
00:42:40,470 --> 00:42:37,920
entire discussion and the fears that

1041
00:42:41,430 --> 00:42:40,480
have been generated illustrates how much

1042
00:42:44,309 --> 00:42:41,440
more

1043
00:42:47,030 --> 00:42:44,319
nasa the scientific community and those

1044
00:42:49,910 --> 00:42:47,040
of us in science education still need to

1045
00:42:52,390 --> 00:42:49,920
do it's really sad that so many people

1046
00:42:54,470 --> 00:42:52,400
are worried in writing to david morrison

1047
00:42:57,349 --> 00:42:54,480
it's really sad that our schools have

1048
00:42:59,910 --> 00:42:57,359
not taught skeptical thinking have not

1049
00:43:02,790 --> 00:42:59,920
helped students to distinguish between

1050
00:43:05,750 --> 00:43:02,800
the reality and the fantasy of what's

1051
00:43:08,550 --> 00:43:05,760
going on in these areas so i think if

1052
00:43:11,030 --> 00:43:08,560
people are concerned about cosmic

1053
00:43:13,510 --> 00:43:11,040
threats part of that is a threat to to

1054
00:43:15,829 --> 00:43:13,520
our understanding of science that comes

1055
00:43:17,670 --> 00:43:15,839
from insufficient science education and

1056
00:43:19,910 --> 00:43:17,680
i hope we can all

1057
00:43:21,910 --> 00:43:19,920
redouble our efforts to help students

1058
00:43:24,710 --> 00:43:21,920
understand the world better

1059
00:43:27,349 --> 00:43:24,720
i'm also worried about that in fact i

1060
00:43:29,430 --> 00:43:27,359
think the great threat is really in this

1061
00:43:32,230 --> 00:43:29,440
month because there are literally

1062
00:43:34,470 --> 00:43:32,240
millions of people who are afraid who

1063
00:43:36,550 --> 00:43:34,480
think the world will end and in

1064
00:43:38,870 --> 00:43:36,560
particular children the children who are

1065
00:43:41,030 --> 00:43:38,880
contemplating suicide the children that

1066
00:43:42,069 --> 00:43:41,040
are worried that christmas won't come

1067
00:43:44,710 --> 00:43:42,079
this year

1068
00:43:47,109 --> 00:43:44,720
and i think it's evil

1069
00:43:49,430 --> 00:43:47,119
for people to propagate rumors on the

1070
00:43:51,990 --> 00:43:49,440
internet to frighten children and i

1071
00:43:54,390 --> 00:43:52,000
think all these frightened children

1072
00:43:57,430 --> 00:43:54,400
are a real problem and i hope it'll go

1073
00:43:59,990 --> 00:43:57,440
away soon but we need to to protect

1074
00:44:03,670 --> 00:44:00,000
ourselves and our children uh from this

1075
00:44:05,829 --> 00:44:03,680
sort of of crazy ideas as andy says the

1076
00:44:08,230 --> 00:44:05,839
best way to protect ourselves is to

1077
00:44:12,150 --> 00:44:08,240
learn enough science to recognize just

1078
00:44:14,550 --> 00:44:12,160
how silly these threats supposedly are

1079
00:44:15,750 --> 00:44:14,560
and i'd like to add to that i i think

1080
00:44:17,510 --> 00:44:15,760
this is

1081
00:44:21,589 --> 00:44:17,520
absolutely true

1082
00:44:24,390 --> 00:44:21,599
science education and outreach is uh

1083
00:44:26,470 --> 00:44:24,400
very very important in this regard as a

1084
00:44:29,589 --> 00:44:26,480
matter of fact the fact that we are all

1085
00:44:33,349 --> 00:44:29,599
here spending an hour doing this it is

1086
00:44:35,829 --> 00:44:33,359
an outreach activity to really educate

1087
00:44:38,630 --> 00:44:35,839
people the best we can on this short

1088
00:44:41,349 --> 00:44:38,640
period of our time i wanted to share

1089
00:44:45,030 --> 00:44:41,359
actually one item with you and that is

1090
00:44:47,670 --> 00:44:45,040
if anyone is uh interested in tracking

1091
00:44:48,790 --> 00:44:47,680
the sun we have something called a 3d

1092
00:44:51,829 --> 00:44:48,800
sun

1093
00:44:54,790 --> 00:44:51,839
app both on iphone and android and of

1094
00:44:56,550 --> 00:44:54,800
course it's on the website and and so

1095
00:44:58,390 --> 00:44:56,560
you can actually this is what i was

1096
00:45:01,589 --> 00:44:58,400
saying i wasn't kidding

1097
00:45:03,750 --> 00:45:01,599
uh we get this sort of 24 7. we have

1098
00:45:06,230 --> 00:45:03,760
data that is transmitted to us by

1099
00:45:09,430 --> 00:45:06,240
several satellite nasa satellite with

1100
00:45:11,510 --> 00:45:09,440
which we are actually seeing the sun

1101
00:45:14,950 --> 00:45:11,520
both the far side at the front front

1102
00:45:17,270 --> 00:45:14,960
side um almost instantaneously but on

1103
00:45:20,150 --> 00:45:17,280
this site you can actually get

1104
00:45:22,550 --> 00:45:20,160
information if there is a solar flare uh

1105
00:45:24,630 --> 00:45:22,560
happening if there is an active region

1106
00:45:27,109 --> 00:45:24,640
emerging so you can be educated there

1107
00:45:29,910 --> 00:45:27,119
are other uh little tidbits in there

1108
00:45:33,750 --> 00:45:29,920
that is informative for our listeners on

1109
00:45:37,510 --> 00:45:35,750
i would agree with everybody about

1110
00:45:41,030 --> 00:45:37,520
science literacy i think that's really

1111
00:45:44,069 --> 00:45:41,040
important i think the greatest threat to

1112
00:45:45,670 --> 00:45:44,079
earth in 2012 at the end of this year

1113
00:45:48,950 --> 00:45:45,680
and in the future it's just from the

1114
00:45:53,349 --> 00:45:50,710
yeah i think it's really important for

1115
00:45:55,109 --> 00:45:53,359
us to uh without getting

1116
00:45:57,829 --> 00:45:55,119
derailed into a long discussion of

1117
00:45:59,270 --> 00:45:57,839
global warming is to emphasize that and

1118
00:46:02,470 --> 00:45:59,280
i said in fact

1119
00:46:04,630 --> 00:46:02,480
we our own actions may represent a far

1120
00:46:06,710 --> 00:46:04,640
greater threat to the planet than

1121
00:46:09,670 --> 00:46:06,720
anything that the cosmos is throwing at

1122
00:46:13,430 --> 00:46:11,510
and this uh this question actually ties

1123
00:46:16,470 --> 00:46:13,440
in well to one that was asked to us on

1124
00:46:18,870 --> 00:46:16,480
youtube from charles phil king he asked

1125
00:46:21,990 --> 00:46:18,880
given all the myths 2012 moon landing

1126
00:46:23,750 --> 00:46:22,000
etc what methods can a lay person who is

1127
00:46:25,990 --> 00:46:23,760
questioning these things

1128
00:46:28,470 --> 00:46:26,000
due to research and verify the research

1129
00:46:30,630 --> 00:46:28,480
they do to help rest their fears slash

1130
00:46:32,790 --> 00:46:30,640
concerns

1131
00:46:35,190 --> 00:46:32,800
that's an excellent question and and i

1132
00:46:37,109 --> 00:46:35,200
get it often um

1133
00:46:39,430 --> 00:46:37,119
obviously these are complicated

1134
00:46:41,270 --> 00:46:39,440
scientific issues and not everybody is

1135
00:46:43,589 --> 00:46:41,280
going to know all the science

1136
00:46:47,030 --> 00:46:43,599
what i tell people first

1137
00:46:50,069 --> 00:46:47,040
is look it up in wikipedia that is such

1138
00:46:54,230 --> 00:46:52,550
resource on the internet of course it's

1139
00:46:55,910 --> 00:46:54,240
not perfect of course some things that

1140
00:46:58,470 --> 00:46:55,920
are wrong but they tend to be corrected

1141
00:47:01,589 --> 00:46:58,480
very quickly for instance just uh last

1142
00:47:03,829 --> 00:47:01,599
week someone put up a silly thing about

1143
00:47:06,230 --> 00:47:03,839
and meteor ten times the size of the

1144
00:47:08,630 --> 00:47:06,240
earth headed for the earth and it was up

1145
00:47:09,750 --> 00:47:08,640
for just under two hours before someone

1146
00:47:11,829 --> 00:47:09,760
took it down

1147
00:47:14,230 --> 00:47:11,839
so you know people can write to ask an

1148
00:47:16,390 --> 00:47:14,240
astrobiologist and other ask a scientist

1149
00:47:17,750 --> 00:47:16,400
things they can learn science that's

1150
00:47:19,910 --> 00:47:17,760
great but when you're faced with an

1151
00:47:22,309 --> 00:47:19,920
immediate issue when you see something

1152
00:47:23,030 --> 00:47:22,319
that just doesn't quite make sense for

1153
00:47:25,990 --> 00:47:23,040
you

1154
00:47:28,550 --> 00:47:26,000
i suggest looking it up on wikipedia

1155
00:47:30,230 --> 00:47:28,560
and another really good resource that we

1156
00:47:34,069 --> 00:47:30,240
can perhaps mention is that there's an

1157
00:47:37,589 --> 00:47:34,079
organization of scientists educators

1158
00:47:40,309 --> 00:47:37,599
magicians and others who are good at

1159
00:47:42,870 --> 00:47:40,319
figuring out tricks of irrational

1160
00:47:45,270 --> 00:47:42,880
thinking it's called the committee for

1161
00:47:52,710 --> 00:47:45,280
skeptical inquiry

1162
00:47:57,670 --> 00:47:54,790
and this organization publishes a

1163
00:47:59,750 --> 00:47:57,680
newsletter called the skeptical inquirer

1164
00:48:02,150 --> 00:47:59,760
uh david has been very active in writing

1165
00:48:04,790 --> 00:48:02,160
for them i think this is an excellent

1166
00:48:10,470 --> 00:48:04,800
source of sort of rational or skeptical

1167
00:48:14,710 --> 00:48:12,309
thank you and i'd be revisified and add

1168
00:48:16,710 --> 00:48:14,720
nasa.gov has a webpage

1169
00:48:19,829 --> 00:48:16,720
that addresses a lot of these questions

1170
00:48:21,829 --> 00:48:19,839
you can visit at nasa.gov 2012.

1171
00:48:23,990 --> 00:48:21,839
i have one final question for the group

1172
00:48:25,510 --> 00:48:24,000
and if you have any closing remarks when

1173
00:48:27,589 --> 00:48:25,520
answering this question uh this would be

1174
00:48:29,349 --> 00:48:27,599
a good time it'd be nice if everybody uh

1175
00:48:31,190 --> 00:48:29,359
may be in order that we started off when

1176
00:48:33,589 --> 00:48:31,200
uh just kind of gives a question and

1177
00:48:36,069 --> 00:48:33,599
answer this um on twitter at esther

1178
00:48:42,150 --> 00:48:36,079
vangardner asks um have you guys made

1179
00:48:45,670 --> 00:48:44,870
i've made a few plans for december 21st

1180
00:48:47,510 --> 00:48:45,680
um

1181
00:48:48,470 --> 00:48:47,520
i'm actually going to be going to

1182
00:48:49,910 --> 00:48:48,480
atlanta

1183
00:48:52,950 --> 00:48:49,920
for christmas

1184
00:48:55,190 --> 00:48:52,960
and on december 22nd i'm running a 5k

1185
00:48:56,870 --> 00:48:55,200
so december 21st i'll probably be

1186
00:49:00,870 --> 00:48:56,880
resting a little bit

1187
00:49:05,109 --> 00:49:03,430
well i i guess the more important

1188
00:49:09,190 --> 00:49:05,119
question is whether we have plans for

1189
00:49:12,470 --> 00:49:09,200
december 22nd and thereafter um i david

1190
00:49:14,950 --> 00:49:12,480
and i participated this summer in a uh

1191
00:49:16,790 --> 00:49:14,960
colloquium for our symposium for the

1192
00:49:19,109 --> 00:49:16,800
astronomical society of the pacific

1193
00:49:21,670 --> 00:49:19,119
where a lot of science educators were

1194
00:49:25,030 --> 00:49:21,680
there and we've been encouraging science

1195
00:49:28,150 --> 00:49:25,040
museums schools and other institutions

1196
00:49:30,230 --> 00:49:28,160
to stay open if possible through that

1197
00:49:32,790 --> 00:49:30,240
evening of december 21st and have a

1198
00:49:35,750 --> 00:49:32,800
little party the first hour of december

1199
00:49:38,470 --> 00:49:35,760
22nd i i certainly will be celebrating

1200
00:49:40,950 --> 00:49:38,480
when december 22nd rolls around but i

1201
00:49:42,390 --> 00:49:40,960
think more importantly what i think we

1202
00:49:45,030 --> 00:49:42,400
all ought to be

1203
00:49:47,109 --> 00:49:45,040
encouraging science teachers and other

1204
00:49:50,150 --> 00:49:47,119
educators to do

1205
00:49:52,870 --> 00:49:50,160
is to be on the lookout for the next

1206
00:49:55,190 --> 00:49:52,880
doomsday because for sure when this

1207
00:49:57,270 --> 00:49:55,200
doomsday is over someone's going to come

1208
00:49:59,270 --> 00:49:57,280
up with another date when the world is

1209
00:50:01,349 --> 00:49:59,280
going to end and perhaps some of the

1210
00:50:03,990 --> 00:50:01,359
tools that we've learned to use for this

1211
00:50:07,030 --> 00:50:04,000
particular doomsday will be helpful in

1212
00:50:10,549 --> 00:50:07,040
preventing fear about future doomsdays

1213
00:50:17,349 --> 00:50:13,910
i think i'm going to start my um first

1214
00:50:19,589 --> 00:50:17,359
day of holiday vacation on 21st with uh

1215
00:50:21,829 --> 00:50:19,599
children home from college it's soul's

1216
00:50:25,270 --> 00:50:21,839
day so obviously if it's not snowing

1217
00:50:27,750 --> 00:50:25,280
outside we'll have a bonfire be happy

1218
00:50:30,230 --> 00:50:27,760
eat drink and be merry and i would

1219
00:50:32,549 --> 00:50:30,240
suggest people who are celebrating

1220
00:50:34,710 --> 00:50:32,559
winter solstice and the special holiday

1221
00:50:38,870 --> 00:50:34,720
in whichever hemisphere you are

1222
00:50:40,950 --> 00:50:38,880
uh i think just celebrate it

1223
00:50:43,430 --> 00:50:40,960
well i'm very jealous of lika and mitzi

1224
00:50:45,030 --> 00:50:43,440
for their plans uh i'm having a very

1225
00:50:47,670 --> 00:50:45,040
important review here at nasa

1226
00:50:49,510 --> 00:50:47,680
headquarters on december 21st

1227
00:50:52,069 --> 00:50:49,520
for for a project with the european

1228
00:50:54,309 --> 00:50:52,079
space agency to build a telescope put it

1229
00:50:56,309 --> 00:50:54,319
in space to study dark energy and the

1230
00:50:57,910 --> 00:50:56,319
whole team will be here to uh to have

1231
00:50:59,589 --> 00:50:57,920
the review and get approval for the next

1232
00:51:01,270 --> 00:50:59,599
stage of that project it's like

1233
00:51:03,510 --> 00:51:01,280
superstorm sandy

1234
00:51:06,549 --> 00:51:03,520
the droughts the floods all of these

1235
00:51:09,910 --> 00:51:06,559
things are happening and that is a real

1236
00:51:14,309 --> 00:51:09,920
threat to the earth not a fantasy like

1237
00:51:17,670 --> 00:51:15,589
yeah i'd like to follow up with

1238
00:51:19,829 --> 00:51:17,680
something david just said there's a plot

1239
00:51:22,549 --> 00:51:19,839
on the bulletin board outside at my

1240
00:51:25,430 --> 00:51:22,559
office of the the

1241
00:51:28,390 --> 00:51:25,440
monthly rise in sea level as the ice

1242
00:51:30,950 --> 00:51:28,400
caps in greenland uh disappeared so

1243
00:51:32,790 --> 00:51:30,960
uh global warming is a real issue and

1244
00:51:36,390 --> 00:51:32,800
colleagues make sure that they don't uh

1245
00:51:38,870 --> 00:51:36,400
dismiss this type of disaster prediction

1246
00:51:40,230 --> 00:51:38,880
as something silly and well outside

1247
00:51:42,950 --> 00:51:40,240
their

1248
00:51:44,630 --> 00:51:42,960
area of expertise and something they

1249
00:51:46,390 --> 00:51:44,640
don't have to concern themselves with we

1250
00:51:48,710 --> 00:51:46,400
all have to concern ourselves with what

1251
00:51:51,510 --> 00:51:48,720
the public thinks these folks are paying

1252
00:51:52,950 --> 00:51:51,520
our salaries they need to know the truth

1253
00:51:54,150 --> 00:51:52,960
they need to know where to go for the

1254
00:51:57,349 --> 00:51:54,160
absolute

1255
00:51:59,030 --> 00:51:57,359
best information be it a nasa site or an

1256
00:52:00,630 --> 00:51:59,040
academic site

1257
00:52:02,630 --> 00:52:00,640
so we need to

1258
00:52:05,349 --> 00:52:02,640
shake our colleagues into action and

1259
00:52:07,589 --> 00:52:05,359
make them talk to the public make them

1260
00:52:09,349 --> 00:52:07,599
respond the way we have and i'd like to

1261
00:52:10,870 --> 00:52:09,359
thank headquarters for putting this on i

1262
00:52:14,630 --> 00:52:10,880
think it's a great start

1263
00:52:16,230 --> 00:52:14,640
and for uh december 21st and 2nd

1264
00:52:17,990 --> 00:52:16,240
if history is any guide i think i'll

1265
00:52:19,109 --> 00:52:18,000
probably be doing last minute shopping

1266
00:52:22,710 --> 00:52:19,119
again and

1267
00:52:24,630 --> 00:52:22,720
running out to get the christmas tree

1268
00:52:26,950 --> 00:52:24,640
great i want to thank our panelists for

1269
00:52:28,630 --> 00:52:26,960
joining us this has been a fantastic and

1270
00:52:30,549 --> 00:52:28,640
lively conversation

1271
00:52:31,670 --> 00:52:30,559
that concludes our 2012 google plus

1272
00:52:32,950 --> 00:52:31,680
hangout

1273
00:52:34,870 --> 00:52:32,960
if your question wasn't answered here

1274
00:52:37,109 --> 00:52:34,880
today uh please visit us on the web or

1275
00:52:39,270 --> 00:52:37,119
on social media and ask away our twitter

1276
00:52:41,470 --> 00:52:39,280
and google plus or on google

1277
00:52:43,589 --> 00:52:41,480
google plus or twitter use the hashtag

1278
00:52:44,710 --> 00:52:43,599
poundasknasa and we'll try to answer

1279
00:52:46,309 --> 00:52:44,720
your question get back to you as soon as

1280
00:52:48,230 --> 00:52:46,319
possible and thanks to everyone for